What Data Tells Us About The Violence In Syria

RFE
12 Mar 2025

While the eruption ofviolencein western Syria has raised questions about the transitional governments ability to control its affiliated factions, it has also brought Russian and Iranian involvement in Syrian affairs into sharp focus.

Various human rights groups monitoring the situation in Syria have documented over 800 casualties, including civilians, since clashes erupted on March 6 between government forces and gunmen loyal to the deposed president, Bashar al-Assad.

Rebel groups led by Ahmad al-Sharaa toppled the government in a lightning offensive in December 2024, bringing an end to half a century of Assad family rule over Syria.

Assads government was backed by Russia and Iran. While Russia has maintained ties with the new government, Iran has been completely excluded.

Through interviews and analysis of open-source data, RFE/RL can give a clearer picture of what's happening inside Syria.

Men Executed By Gunshots

Rights groups say among the dead are hundreds of civilian casualties, most of whom were Alawite, a minority community which Assad belongs to. The UN on March 11 said entire families, including women and children, were killed during the violence.

Social-media footage analyzed by Schemes, the investigative unit of RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service,suggests that some of the worst violence against Alawite civilians took place in the port city of Latakia, where Russias Hmeimim air base is located.

Some videos showed unarmed men being executed by gunshot from behind and others depicted victims being physically abused and humiliated, such as being forced to bark like a dog and crawl over dead bodies.

Nobil, a Syrian from Latakia who currently lives in Greece, told Schemes that factions affiliated with the transitional government entered his home village of Muzayraa on the night of March 6 and indiscriminately shot at houses with large-caliber machine guns mounted on trucks.

He said he lost six family members in the attack, including two aunts and two nephews, but his brother managed to escape.

Syrian government forces deployed in the town of Qadmus in Syria's Tartus governorate on March 9

Schemes found the Facebook profile of one of the alleged attackers known as Abu Bakr Mork, also called Talha, whose page is filled with posts about the attacks in western Syria.

In one post, he called for men to come to the area because the women in the area are widowed and there are no men left. In another, he wrote about the campaign to clear the remnants of the defunct regime, referring to Assads government.

Seeking Refuge In A Russian Air Base

Satellite images provided by Planet Labs and analyzed by Schemes show that, as early as March 7, people started to gather near the Russian-operated Hmeimim air base, seemingly seeking refuge from the clashes.

This very well may be the only safe place for people to stay, given that neither side wants to spoil relations with Russia at the moment, Ihor Semyvolos, director of the Kyiv-based Center for Middle East Studies, told Schemes.

Tents, cars, and crowds of people arriving at the Russian-operated Hmeimim air base can be seen in satellite imagery captured on March 8.

Russia was a major backer of Assad, providing his forces and Iranian-backed proxies air support as they fought not only against Islamic State (IS) militants but also rebels opposed to Assads rule.

Those same rebels are now in charge, but Moscow has managed to position itself as a critical partner to Syrias new rulers, who rely on Russia to print its local currency.

The Russians have maintained a significant presence at their two military bases, especially at Hmeimim.

Systema, RFE/RLs Russian investigative unit, has confirmed at least 37 flights by large Antonov An-124 cargo planes between December 2024 and March, identifying 22 arrivals and 15 departures from the air base. Each plane can carry up to 150 tons of equipment, indicating substantial movement of personnel or equipment.

Photo Gallery:

Shaky Ground: Inside The Russian Military Bases In Syria

Amos Chapple

Photographs taken during the rule of Syria's deposed president, Bashar al-Assad, show life inside Russia's air and naval facilities in the Middle Eastern country.

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Analyzingimageson social media from the last few days,Systema has found that Major General Sergei Gashkov, head of Russia's Center for Reconciliation and Refugee Movement Control in Syria, is currently at the air base.

It is unsurprising that Russia seeks to maintain strong ties with Damascus under its new leadership, asretainingcontrol over the Hmeimim air base and the naval base in Tartus provides strategic access to the Middle East, North Africa, and the Mediterranean Sea.

What Is Irans Role?

There is no solid evidence suggesting that Russia is involved in fomenting unrest along Syrias western coast, but some have accused Iran of playing a part.

In Assad, Iran lost a key ally who had allowed Tehran to use Syria as a land corridor to connect its regional proxies in Iraq and Lebanon.